Boris Johnson toasts after Partygate grills - and could be gone by summer

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Here's what's likely to happen next after Boris Johnson's wayward evidence session before the privileges committee

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Image: PRU/AFP via Getty Images)

Boris Johnson could face a by-election by summer after his wayward grilling on Partygate.

Tory colleagues believe the former prime minister is toasting after the three-hour questioning at the hands of the Privileges Committee on Wednesday.

And a former government source said the 'chance of a real comeback' for Mr Johnson was 'virtually zero'.

The Committee is set to deliver its verdict on whether he 'recklessly' or 'intentionally' lied to Parliament when he said lockdown rules were followed in Downing Street.

While they have the power to recommend his expulsion from Parliament, such a nuclear option is believed to be unlikely.

But committee members, eager to be seen as protectors of the reputation of the Commons, shouldn't struggle to reach the 10-day sitting mark - which would trigger a recall vote.

One of the photos used as evidence against Mr. Johnson (

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And the Committee is supposed to be allowed to consider "aggravating" factors when deciding on the recommended length of suspension.

Mr. Johnson and his legal team questioned the Committee's procedure and legitimacy. Even hinting that he might not agree to the investigation would have been fair if they came out against him.

"I think if this committee were to find me in contempt of Parliament," he said in his testimony, "...it would not only be unfair, but it would be a mistake." »

Mr Johnson's supporters, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, have called the inquiry a 'kangaroo court'.

With Mr Johnson’s support among MPs down to a handful of his most vocal defenders – some of whom showed up to back him loudly during Wednesday’s questioning – the House of Commons is all but certain to vote to endorse the Committee's recommendation.

Rishi Sunak confirmed last week that Tory MPs would be allowed to vote freely on the recommendation. Many of the ex-PM's supporters stayed away that day, to avoid the furious voter backlash they faced for opposing Owen Paterson's suspension for breaking the rules lobbying.

A major Conservative donor said his impression of the mood of the party was that "with the parliamentary party,