Falling agricultural yields in Europe due to heat waves could aggravate price rises

Yields of major crops in Europe will fall sharply this year due to heat waves and droughts, worsening the effects of the war in Ukraine on food prices.

Corn, sunflower and soybean yields are expected to fall by around 8% to 9% due to hot weather on the continent, according to EU forecasts. Cooking oil and corn supplies were already under pressure, as Ukraine is a big producer and its exports were blocked by Russia.

Large parts of Europe have been affected by drought and hot weather in recent weeks, particularly in Spain, southern France, central and northern Italy, central Germany, northern Romania and eastern Hungary. Cereal yields overall are down about 2% from the five-year average, although a handful of crops such as sugar beets and potatoes are doing better than average.

According to the latest monthly edition of the Mars Bulletin, published this week by the EU Joint Research Centre, drought and heat stress in many regions have coincided with the flowering phase of crops keys, and water reservoirs in many places are at levels too low to meet demand for irrigation.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, has refused to allow shipments of grain and other foodstuffs from Ukraine, although a shaky deal on some shipments has been reached that should allow at least part of Ukraine's crops to reach world markets .

The war in Ukraine h has also increased the prices of fuel and fertilizers, two essential inputs for agriculture, which has further increased food prices. Ukraine itself is also suffering the effects of hot weather and heat stress, as well as the war, which prevents the shipment of cereals, corn, sunflowers and other crops already harvested, and is likely to have a severe impact on future harvests as farmers are unable to properly plant their fields.

Food prices have risen around the world following the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic - which has led to people in many countries running out of food supplies, as well as rising demand and the impacts of the climate crisis.