General election countdown: what the 1983 and 2017 votes tell us about Starmer's lead over Sunak

Sign up to receive the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox. Receive our free View from Westminster emailPlease enter a valid email addressPlease enter a valid email addressI would like to receive email about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy{{ #verifyErrors }}{{ message }}{{ /verifyErrors }}{{ ^verifyErrors }}Something went wrong. Please try again later{{ /verifyErrors }>

Since Rishi Sunak made his announcement in the rain in Downing Street, the election campaign has been characterized by an inability to change Labour's lead – but the election Past experiences suggest that movement is still possible.

Polls this week show a massive lead for Sir Keir Starmer, with the party at around 45 percent and the Conservatives hovering around 20.

Labor hoping to overtake victory Tony Blair's crushing victory in 1997.

But the game is not over yet. In 1983, an SDP-Liberal alliance came a distant second to lead Labor into second place in the popular vote.

More recently, in 2017, the Conservatives' 20-point lead collapsed under Jeremy's challenge. Corbyn's Labor Party and Theresa May had to form a minority government.

With four weeks to go, Tuesday's heated debate revealed the weaknesses of both leaders and the arrival of Nigel Farage for Reform UK will shake up the calculations in a number of constituencies.

Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats are a factor, currently polling at 12 and 11 percent respectively, according to Techne UK. That's almost a quarter of the popular vote split between the two parties.

Lib Dem chairman and polling expert Dr Mark Pack said: "I think there's a difference for smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats, where campaigning can really make a difference to the number of seats the party wins

"But if you look at Labor and the Conservatives, whoever starts first. the other is, historically, the big favorite to finish first at the end."