Leaked document outlines 4 'wild card' scenarios in the Russian-Ukrainian war

A secret intelligence document obtained by The New York Times that was among those leaked on the internet this year provides insight into contingency planning a year after the war in Ukraine began .

< p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">The Defense Intelligence Agency analysis outlines four "wild card" scenarios and how they could affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine. What-if scenarios include the death of Presidents Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the removal of the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces, and a Ukrainian strike on the Kremlin.

The document indicates that the war is likely to remain protracted. But it describes how each "wild card" scenario could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine, a negotiated end to the conflict, or have no substantial impact on the trajectory of the war.

The scenario document is a fairly typical product created by intelligence agencies. It is designed to help military officers, policymakers, or legislators think about the possible outcomes of major events when weighing their options.

The document is marked as "RELIDO", indicating that the decision to release the information — to foreign partners, for example — rests with certain senior officials. It is dated February 24 and is marked "ONE YEAR", suggesting that the analysis was carried out one year after the start of the invasion.

The one of four sets of hypothetical scenarios about what might happen if Ukraine hits the Kremlin. A wide range of potential implications are identified. The event could lead to an escalation, with Mr Putin responding to public outcry by launching a full-scale military mobilization and considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Or, public fears could lead him to negotiate a settlement of the war.

The Biden administration has been particularly concerned about a possible strike on Moscow by Ukraine, as this could cause a dramatic escalation by Russia. The dangers of such an attack by Ukraine is one of the reasons the United States has been reluctant to supply longer-range missiles to Kiev.

Some intelligence agency analyzes provide assessments of the most likely outcome of a certain event, but not the wildcard document. It describes various possible scenarios without evaluating which might be most likely.

U.S. officials declined to say whether the document was authentic, but they did not dispute its authenticity. The document is similar to other products by the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff that officials have acknowledged were real.

U.S. officials also warned that the leaked documents are dated and in many cases do not represent current assessments by various intelligence agencies.

A second top secret document obtained by The Times includes details of negotiations over Russian fuel prices in Africa.

According to the document dated February 17, Malian authorities were at the time dissatisfied fuel prices and continued to negotiate with the Russian Ministry of Energy and representatives of Africa Politology, an entity linked to the Wagner Private Military Company.

This apparent drop in prices comes at a time when the African market for fuel has become increasingly important to Russia due to price caps imposed by the West and the European Union's ban on imports of products Russian refined tankers which continues to reduce the sources of disposable income.