2023: Nigeria's presidential election make or break, By Bámidélé Adémolá-Olátéjú
2023 will be a four-man race and could contest a second round for the first time since 1999. You don't need a US agency to tell you which way the wind is blowing. I believe that whoever wins in the first round under the first-past-the-post system will get no more than 37% of the total votes cast. Those who follow politics closely will recall that the late Governor Ajimobi was first elected with just 32.6% of the vote, in a hotly contested four-horse race.
Dwindling opportunity, rising insecurity and bleak economic prospects have created an environment polluted with anger. This anger has spawned a growing number of political fundamentalists and fanatics. There is palpable anger on Nigerian social media platforms whenever politics is at issue and what is at issue these days if not the 2023 elections? In the social media ecosystem, frustration with the political class has given rise to a dangerous mix of radical and utopian politics, where intimidation and enmity are the rules of engagement. Politics in a democracy presupposes tolerance, representativeness and openness. However, followers of Peter Obi (the Obidients) and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BATists) on social media have become relentless fundamentalists or political fanatics. The rabid antagonism and intimidation challenge their understanding of rationality, the expression of public passions and representation. If we are to progress politically, we must be rational, tolerant and understand others' choices and respect differences of opinion. Yes, 2023 is an important election. Indeed, 2020-2030 is a defining decade for Nigeria.
Let me say this: I will dissect the 2023 election, not as a partisan actor, but as an analyst. Nothing I write here represents the opinion of my Director, Ondo State Governor Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu (SAN) or the position of the Ondo State Government.
By the way, let me boldly declare that the 2023 elections will be a departure from the norm established since 1999, around an establishment duopoly. Students of politics may have observed that established duopolies have been challenged and dismantled over the past decade in Mexico, France and five months ago in Chile, among others. Even in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is under threat. In Nigeria, to paraphrase the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci, the old order refuses to give ground, making it difficult for a new order to emerge.
2023 will be a four-man race and could contest a second round for the first time since 1999. You don't need a US agency to tell you which way the wind is blowing. I believe that whoever wins in the first round under the first-past-the-post system will get no more than 37% of the total votes cast. Those who follow politics closely will recall that the late Governor Ajimobi was first elected with just 32.6% of the vote, in a hotly contested four-horse race.
Whoever wins in 2023 may struggle to get convincing control of the National Assembly. This is where the question of legitimacy lies, which is essential. In terms of fiscal health, whoever wins in 2023 will inherit a poisoned gift. He will have to face the daunting reality of a technically insolvent economy heading for bankruptcy. It is pertinent to note that for the f...
2023 will be a four-man race and could contest a second round for the first time since 1999. You don't need a US agency to tell you which way the wind is blowing. I believe that whoever wins in the first round under the first-past-the-post system will get no more than 37% of the total votes cast. Those who follow politics closely will recall that the late Governor Ajimobi was first elected with just 32.6% of the vote, in a hotly contested four-horse race.
Dwindling opportunity, rising insecurity and bleak economic prospects have created an environment polluted with anger. This anger has spawned a growing number of political fundamentalists and fanatics. There is palpable anger on Nigerian social media platforms whenever politics is at issue and what is at issue these days if not the 2023 elections? In the social media ecosystem, frustration with the political class has given rise to a dangerous mix of radical and utopian politics, where intimidation and enmity are the rules of engagement. Politics in a democracy presupposes tolerance, representativeness and openness. However, followers of Peter Obi (the Obidients) and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BATists) on social media have become relentless fundamentalists or political fanatics. The rabid antagonism and intimidation challenge their understanding of rationality, the expression of public passions and representation. If we are to progress politically, we must be rational, tolerant and understand others' choices and respect differences of opinion. Yes, 2023 is an important election. Indeed, 2020-2030 is a defining decade for Nigeria.
Let me say this: I will dissect the 2023 election, not as a partisan actor, but as an analyst. Nothing I write here represents the opinion of my Director, Ondo State Governor Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu (SAN) or the position of the Ondo State Government.
By the way, let me boldly declare that the 2023 elections will be a departure from the norm established since 1999, around an establishment duopoly. Students of politics may have observed that established duopolies have been challenged and dismantled over the past decade in Mexico, France and five months ago in Chile, among others. Even in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is under threat. In Nigeria, to paraphrase the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci, the old order refuses to give ground, making it difficult for a new order to emerge.
2023 will be a four-man race and could contest a second round for the first time since 1999. You don't need a US agency to tell you which way the wind is blowing. I believe that whoever wins in the first round under the first-past-the-post system will get no more than 37% of the total votes cast. Those who follow politics closely will recall that the late Governor Ajimobi was first elected with just 32.6% of the vote, in a hotly contested four-horse race.
Whoever wins in 2023 may struggle to get convincing control of the National Assembly. This is where the question of legitimacy lies, which is essential. In terms of fiscal health, whoever wins in 2023 will inherit a poisoned gift. He will have to face the daunting reality of a technically insolvent economy heading for bankruptcy. It is pertinent to note that for the f...
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