Bitcoin Pinned Below $20,000 as Macro Sentiment Stifles Hopes of Sustainable BTC Bull Run
BTC bulls have a chance to profit from the $410 million options expiry this week, but the factors driving down the stock markets reduce the chances of Bitcoin changing its trend.
Market analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $19,000 on September 6, dragging the price to an 80-day low. The move not only completely wiped out the entire 32% gain accumulated from July to August 15, it also wiped out $246 million in leveraged long (buy) futures contracts.
Bitcoin's price is down for the year, but it's important to compare its price action with other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotech company, is down 30.4 % over the same period.
Inflationary pressures and fears of a global recession have kept investors away from riskier assets. Seeking refuge in cash positions, mostly in the dollar itself, this protective move pushed the 5-year yield on US Treasuries to 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. . By demanding a higher premium for holding government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in current inflation controls.
Data released on September 7 shows Chinese exports rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after rising 18% in July. Additionally, German factory orders data from September 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July from a year earlier. So, until there is some decoupling from traditional markets, there is not much hope for a sustainable bull run in Bitcoin.
The bears were too optimisticOpen interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower as the bears have become overconfident. These traders did not expect $18,700 to hold because their bets were targeting $18,500 and below.
Bitcoin options accrue open interest for the September 9 Source: CoinGlassThe call-to-put ratio of 0.77 reflects the imbalance between the $180 million buy (buy) open interest and options sale (sale) of 230 million dollars. Currently, Bitcoin stands at almost $18,900, which means that most bets of...
BTC bulls have a chance to profit from the $410 million options expiry this week, but the factors driving down the stock markets reduce the chances of Bitcoin changing its trend.
Market analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $19,000 on September 6, dragging the price to an 80-day low. The move not only completely wiped out the entire 32% gain accumulated from July to August 15, it also wiped out $246 million in leveraged long (buy) futures contracts.
Bitcoin's price is down for the year, but it's important to compare its price action with other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotech company, is down 30.4 % over the same period.
Inflationary pressures and fears of a global recession have kept investors away from riskier assets. Seeking refuge in cash positions, mostly in the dollar itself, this protective move pushed the 5-year yield on US Treasuries to 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. . By demanding a higher premium for holding government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in current inflation controls.
Data released on September 7 shows Chinese exports rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after rising 18% in July. Additionally, German factory orders data from September 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July from a year earlier. So, until there is some decoupling from traditional markets, there is not much hope for a sustainable bull run in Bitcoin.
The bears were too optimisticOpen interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower as the bears have become overconfident. These traders did not expect $18,700 to hold because their bets were targeting $18,500 and below.
Bitcoin options accrue open interest for the September 9 Source: CoinGlassThe call-to-put ratio of 0.77 reflects the imbalance between the $180 million buy (buy) open interest and options sale (sale) of 230 million dollars. Currently, Bitcoin stands at almost $18,900, which means that most bets of...
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