Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Rally May Begin Soon – Here's Why

In this week's episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph's resident expert discusses whether this is your last chance to buy Bitcoin low while the Bitcoin pre-halving rally may be just around the corner.

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In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman discusses Standard Chartered Bank's $120,000 Bitcoin price expectations based on the impact of the halving. According to the report, increased miner profitability due to a rally before the halving would "reduce the net supply of BTC".

Pechman, on the other hand, doesn't acknowledge the thesis, given that mining difficulty will continue to increase and news confirms Riot Platform's investment in new ASIC gear. In fact, mining difficulty has increased by 73% over the past 12 months, while the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 58%.

As for the year-end price prediction of $50,000 for Bitcoin, Pechman thinks the number is too optimistic, given the low chance of getting approval for a traded fund in spot Bitcoin exchange (ETF) by then. However, if the ETF is approved within the next six months, an estimated potential inflow of $5 billion could propel Bitcoin's price above $70,000.

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For 2024, Pechman raises his odds of getting the spot Bitcoin ETF approval to 30%, while Bloomberg analysts expect even higher odds at 50%. Given the sheer size of BlackRock and Fidelity, Pechman thinks an inflow of $10 billion in the first two months after the ETF's launch is achievable, suggesting that expectations of $120,000 from Standard Chartered might be cautious.

The wait for ETF approval may impact the rally ahead of the halving, according to Pechman, who also explains why investors may be anticipating the move. Therefore, the pre-halving effect may lengthen or shorten if investors drop out before the event occurs. Pechman's recommendation is to avoid fear of missing out or FOMO. If you missed an entry spot, traders either have to wait for the average dollar cost or sit and wait.

Finally, Pechman analyzes Glassnode's latest on-chain analysis report on the $30,000 reaccumulation. According to Pechman, the “return to meaning” is also prevalent in traditional markets. When investors are lost without the conviction to move the price, they refer to previous two- or three-year average levels.

For more on Pechman's strategy for the Bitcoin halving and the impact of a one-off Bitcoin ETF approval, listen to The Market Report, exclusively on the news Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

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