DeSci: Tech trees to fund ambitious science and tech
DeSci: Tech trees to fund ambitious science and tech
To facilitate coordination, technology trees help decentralize science and provide an overview of the field, existing work, and challenges open.
Expert opinion
Have you ever played the Civilization game series, created by designer Sid Meier? Over the years a lot has changed, but one of the unchanging features of the series has been the tech tree. Why has it been such a stable component of this game? Because it allows you, at a glance, to see the big picture of the technological capabilities needed to advance your audacious civilizational goals.
Compare this with our real civilization. If we wanted to, we could probably map the many paths of technological capability that got us to where we are today. After all, our current tech stack is the one the Civilization tech tree is modeled after. What if we could build a future-facing tech tree, right now? Reality is, without a doubt, more complex than a video game. So, rather than mapping civilization as a whole, perhaps we could start with individual areas of technology and map them, one by one. In technology domains, one could decompose the main goals of the domain into the future capabilities required to achieve them and recursively return to the current capability stack.
Even if it's possible, what's the point? The fact is that, in addition to being an intellectually interesting undertaking, it may well accelerate progress considerably. Imagine you're a talented funder or postdoc, entrepreneur-in-residence, or advocacy leader looking to advance your chosen technology field. Currently, it is quite difficult to figure out how to connect. Even after graduating in this field, digesting much of its literature, relying on interviews and online courses, it's not very intuitive to see how to connect the dots in an area in a way that would advance the field. There is a lot of information available, but without scaffolding to map the context and dependencies of the various opportunities, one can only guess that the one you are zooming in on is actually a crucial bottleneck in the field rather than an unrelated detail. relevant which remains to be solved by an approaching technological innovation upstream of this field.
Related:
A dynamic overview of a domain would make it easier to coordinate efforts, find and fund undervalued domains, and determine how together they unlock new capabilities and applications.
Tech trees: the reality
So far so good, in theory. Could this work in practice? At the Foresight Institute, we try to find out. Foresight runs five technical programs:
Decentralized computing, focused on secure cooperation, chaired by Mark S. Miller, chief scientist at Agoric.
Molecular Machines, Focused on Atomic Precision, chaired by Ben Reinhardt, PARPA.
Rejuvenation-focused biotech and healthcare extension sponsored by 100 Plus Capital.
Neurotech, focused on brain-computer interfaces and whole-brain emulations, chaired by Randal Koene, CarbonCopies.
Spacetech, specializing in space exploration technologies, chaired by Creon Levit, Planet Labs
These programs are accompanied by expert groups of approximately 200 scientists, entrepreneurs, and funders per group, cooperating to drive long-term progress, supported by workshops, fellowships, and prizes. To deal with the problem of integrating the growing number of new enthusiasts in these fields, at the beginning of 2022, we decided to create technology trees to map each area.
Led by interviews with domain experts, this pioneering team is currently building technology trees of each domain, starting with the state of the art , mapping each long-term goals with conditional nodes, one branch at a time. At the end of the first quarter, we completed the first prototypes of tech trees.
Rather than committing to the chair philosophy, our Tech Tree Architects develop Tech Trees through discussions with domain experts working on each node. Feedback cycles will drive iterations of the tree until we get a clear picture of the field. Once v1 is complete, we will open the trees to crowdsourcing.
Each node will be clickable, allowing users to zoom into a particular node to see relevant companies, advocacy groups, labs and independent projects. Others will want to know which open challenges require incentivization through funding. Researchers can submit challenges to advance in their field. We can set bounties and prizes on bottlenecks to encourage progress.
Related:
Tech trees: the potential
The membranes between trees can be quite permeable. For example, the computing tree, with tools like privacy-preserving machine learning, will have something to say about the longevity tech tree. The Molecular Machines tech tree, with tools such as Uncloneable Polymers, will be relevant to the Crypto tech stack in the Computing Tree. All of them will illuminate our future in space, from material and energy advancements to molecular machines to human capabilities enhanced by longevity and neurotechnology.
As the branches of different tech trees begin to huddle together, the risks will also become more apparent. Advanced artificial intelligence will be a major revolution and a vector of risk in all trees. But technologies to mitigate risk, such as IT security, will also become more visible and, therefore, fundable. This could increase funding for "differential technological development" - the development of civilizational technologies that improve security over those that are risky.
Some pioneers may want to coordinate on desirable paths through the forest of trees, like this civilizational map offered by Trent McConaghy. Others will want to specialize in advancing the frontiers of their local field, business or project, such as Balaji Srinivasan.
What comes after thesis statements and VC portfolio pages?
The tech tree. A constantly updated open source map of everything you want to fund, how it interrelates, and what's left to build. A vision of the definite future that still accommodates uncertainty and creativity.
— Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis)
Tech Trees allow a variety of Pioneers to compare notes and accelerate progress across the board.
Related:
Such a long-term project may seem naive from where we are today. One of the reasons is that we have sub-optimal tools. To address this issue, we co-hosted a hackathon to create an app for better crowdsourcing and crowdfunding of these cards, in collaboration with Srinivasan from; Evan Miyazono of Protocol Labs; McConaghy of Ocean Protocol; Amir Banifatemi of XPrize; and Seda and Matthias Röder, and Andy Smolek of Sonophilia. Top submissions are now collaborating on future roadmap efforts via MapsDAO.
Finally, trees take time to grow. But the sooner we sow them, the sooner we begin the many cycles of iteration needed to reap their rewards.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Allison Duettmann is the President of the Foresight Institute, a 38-year-old institute that supports the beneficial development of high-impact technologies to make great futures more likely. She directs the Intelligent Cooperation, Molecular Machines, Health Extension, Neurotech and Space programs. She co-edited the book Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy and co-authored Gaming the Future: Intelligent Voluntary Cooperation. She holds a Master of Science in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics, with a focus on AI security, and a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from York University. /div>
To facilitate coordination, technology trees help decentralize science and provide an overview of the field, existing work, and challenges open.
Expert opinion
Have you ever played the Civilization game series, created by designer Sid Meier? Over the years a lot has changed, but one of the unchanging features of the series has been the tech tree. Why has it been such a stable component of this game? Because it allows you, at a glance, to see the big picture of the technological capabilities needed to advance your audacious civilizational goals.
Compare this with our real civilization. If we wanted to, we could probably map the many paths of technological capability that got us to where we are today. After all, our current tech stack is the one the Civilization tech tree is modeled after. What if we could build a future-facing tech tree, right now? Reality is, without a doubt, more complex than a video game. So, rather than mapping civilization as a whole, perhaps we could start with individual areas of technology and map them, one by one. In technology domains, one could decompose the main goals of the domain into the future capabilities required to achieve them and recursively return to the current capability stack.
Even if it's possible, what's the point? The fact is that, in addition to being an intellectually interesting undertaking, it may well accelerate progress considerably. Imagine you're a talented funder or postdoc, entrepreneur-in-residence, or advocacy leader looking to advance your chosen technology field. Currently, it is quite difficult to figure out how to connect. Even after graduating in this field, digesting much of its literature, relying on interviews and online courses, it's not very intuitive to see how to connect the dots in an area in a way that would advance the field. There is a lot of information available, but without scaffolding to map the context and dependencies of the various opportunities, one can only guess that the one you are zooming in on is actually a crucial bottleneck in the field rather than an unrelated detail. relevant which remains to be solved by an approaching technological innovation upstream of this field.
Related:
A dynamic overview of a domain would make it easier to coordinate efforts, find and fund undervalued domains, and determine how together they unlock new capabilities and applications.
Tech trees: the reality
So far so good, in theory. Could this work in practice? At the Foresight Institute, we try to find out. Foresight runs five technical programs:
Decentralized computing, focused on secure cooperation, chaired by Mark S. Miller, chief scientist at Agoric.
Molecular Machines, Focused on Atomic Precision, chaired by Ben Reinhardt, PARPA.
Rejuvenation-focused biotech and healthcare extension sponsored by 100 Plus Capital.
Neurotech, focused on brain-computer interfaces and whole-brain emulations, chaired by Randal Koene, CarbonCopies.
Spacetech, specializing in space exploration technologies, chaired by Creon Levit, Planet Labs
These programs are accompanied by expert groups of approximately 200 scientists, entrepreneurs, and funders per group, cooperating to drive long-term progress, supported by workshops, fellowships, and prizes. To deal with the problem of integrating the growing number of new enthusiasts in these fields, at the beginning of 2022, we decided to create technology trees to map each area.
Led by interviews with domain experts, this pioneering team is currently building technology trees of each domain, starting with the state of the art , mapping each long-term goals with conditional nodes, one branch at a time. At the end of the first quarter, we completed the first prototypes of tech trees.
Rather than committing to the chair philosophy, our Tech Tree Architects develop Tech Trees through discussions with domain experts working on each node. Feedback cycles will drive iterations of the tree until we get a clear picture of the field. Once v1 is complete, we will open the trees to crowdsourcing.
Each node will be clickable, allowing users to zoom into a particular node to see relevant companies, advocacy groups, labs and independent projects. Others will want to know which open challenges require incentivization through funding. Researchers can submit challenges to advance in their field. We can set bounties and prizes on bottlenecks to encourage progress.
Related:
Tech trees: the potential
The membranes between trees can be quite permeable. For example, the computing tree, with tools like privacy-preserving machine learning, will have something to say about the longevity tech tree. The Molecular Machines tech tree, with tools such as Uncloneable Polymers, will be relevant to the Crypto tech stack in the Computing Tree. All of them will illuminate our future in space, from material and energy advancements to molecular machines to human capabilities enhanced by longevity and neurotechnology.
As the branches of different tech trees begin to huddle together, the risks will also become more apparent. Advanced artificial intelligence will be a major revolution and a vector of risk in all trees. But technologies to mitigate risk, such as IT security, will also become more visible and, therefore, fundable. This could increase funding for "differential technological development" - the development of civilizational technologies that improve security over those that are risky.
Some pioneers may want to coordinate on desirable paths through the forest of trees, like this civilizational map offered by Trent McConaghy. Others will want to specialize in advancing the frontiers of their local field, business or project, such as Balaji Srinivasan.
What comes after thesis statements and VC portfolio pages?
The tech tree. A constantly updated open source map of everything you want to fund, how it interrelates, and what's left to build. A vision of the definite future that still accommodates uncertainty and creativity.
— Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis)
Tech Trees allow a variety of Pioneers to compare notes and accelerate progress across the board.
Related:
Such a long-term project may seem naive from where we are today. One of the reasons is that we have sub-optimal tools. To address this issue, we co-hosted a hackathon to create an app for better crowdsourcing and crowdfunding of these cards, in collaboration with Srinivasan from; Evan Miyazono of Protocol Labs; McConaghy of Ocean Protocol; Amir Banifatemi of XPrize; and Seda and Matthias Röder, and Andy Smolek of Sonophilia. Top submissions are now collaborating on future roadmap efforts via MapsDAO.
Finally, trees take time to grow. But the sooner we sow them, the sooner we begin the many cycles of iteration needed to reap their rewards.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Allison Duettmann is the President of the Foresight Institute, a 38-year-old institute that supports the beneficial development of high-impact technologies to make great futures more likely. She directs the Intelligent Cooperation, Molecular Machines, Health Extension, Neurotech and Space programs. She co-edited the book Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy and co-authored Gaming the Future: Intelligent Voluntary Cooperation. She holds a Master of Science in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics, with a focus on AI security, and a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from York University. /div>
