Multiple factors could shape the outcome of the 2023 Nigerian elections (3), By Uche Igwe

Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi

…projections may change as candidates make their final choices to afflict undecided voters. For now, predictions point to a runoff, but it's unclear who will contest the runoff and any alliances that may precede it. Beyond election angst, Nigerians are collectively celebrating the impending end of the catastrophe personified by the Buhari administration, which they see as a misadventure.

Although a late entrant to the race, Labor Party presidential candidate and former Anambra State Governor Mr Peter Obi is gaining momentum. He appears quite popular among young people and many disgruntled elites across the country. His party platform is not mainstream and enjoys a small network across the country, with many suggesting this could hurt his chances. Many politicians insist that it lacks the structure to win elections and consider it a mere spoiler. However, Mr. Obi's promises of far-reaching reforms, particularly in the power sector, and his commitment to revamp Africa's largest and battered economy, and steer it off the path of consumption to that of production, seem to resonate with many citizens, including those in the diaspora.

But between Mr Peter Obi's popularity and his election victory are influential stakeholders and elite gatekeepers, who fear his emergence could send them into abrupt retirement. They are therefore determined to constitute stumbling blocks to its emergence. Yet the Labor Party candidate appears resolute, energetic and fiery, traveling the country and boldly asking voters to elect him because of his character, skill and compassion.

Strict requirements for victory put the ruling party at an advantage, but…

Nigeria is a complex heterogeneous country where winning elections often involves building up a financial war chest, which can be used to lubricate alliances of loyalty and patronage. These structures should provide the necessary leverage to win elections. For example, Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is currently in charge of 22 of the country's 36 states. The constitutional requirement for the winner of the presidential election is that the individual must obtain the most votes and 25% of the votes in at least 24 (two-thirds) of the states in the country.

Entering the competition with 22 governors gives a considerable advantage to the candidate of the ruling party. In addition, the ruling party c...