Nigeria's 'wheat trap' and the importation of kangaroo food, by Simbo Olorunfemi

No doubt, that Nigeria is facing an acute food crisis. A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted that around 20 million Nigerians would face food insecurity between June and August this year. Although this was explained by issues of banditry, insurrection, displacement, long-term effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, high inflation and soaring commodity prices, it was compounded by the Russian-Ukrainian war.

This development reinforces the argument that while the food crisis is largely self-inflicted, it is partly externally induced by the nature of the international economic order in which poor, but wealthy, countries are reduced to exporting what they have, unrefined, in exchange for what they do not need, but which they have been conditioned to desire is also not in doubt. Nowhere is the convoluted and contradictory nature of the international economic order more pronounced than in the realm of agriculture in Africa. With around 65% of the world's arable land still to be cultivated, Africa spends more than $30 billion importing food, much of which has nothing to do with it. “In doing so, it is decimating its own agriculture, spending scarce foreign currency to import what it can and should produce, exporting jobs and subjecting itself to the price effects of global commodity supply shocks,” says Dr. Akinwumi Adesina.

The situation is particularly pathetic and ironic for Nigeria. Although it has more than 80 million hectares of arable land, more than half of which is not yet used, with almost 300 cubic meters of water available from four and other smaller ones, allowing to irrigate a large tract of this land, it spends about $10 billion annually importing food and agricultural products, most of which are wheat, rice, poultry, fish and table foods . Imported inflation is one of the adverse effects of a high food import bill, with pressure on the exchange rate leading to devaluation-triggered inflation, with food prices soaring beyond the reach of those which are at the bottom of the scale, because it is the case now.

Nigeria's imports of food and agricultural products from the United States have averaged just $537 million over the past five years, with about 70% of this being wheat. In 2020, Nigeria imported 1.29 million metric tons of wheat from the United States, being the fifth largest importer of American wheat in the world. Yet this was only 40% of what Nigeria imports, due to the market grip of US-origin wheat. While Nigeria benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), it is unable to take full advantage of it due to concerns over the country's SPS/food safety system, exports of Nigerian food and agricultural products averaging $50 million a year.

Wheat has become the third most consumed cereal in Nigeria after maize and rice. The import of wheat, by some estimates, amounts to $4 billion a year, making it the most important imported commodity for Nigeria for more than a decade. However, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) puts the annual cost at $2 billion, with the import of wheat being the most important food item and the second highest item on Nigeria's import bill.

In 2021, Nigeria imported wheat worth 1,290 billion naira, an increase of more than 70% from 756.92 billion naira for 2020, tripling the figure of 401.31 naira for 2019, suggesting an increasing shift in demand towards wheat. based foods. Indeed, it is not just the amount that Nigeria spends on importing wheat that is of concern, it is the annual growth rate of consumption, projected at 5%, that is even more worrying. “By 2030, Nigeria will import 10 million foods...