State of the PT race: What Nigerian voter registration numbers mean for Tinubu, Atiku, Obi

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) suspended the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise last week after more than 12 million new voters registered since the window opened on June 28 2020. This figure took the voter register for next year's general election to 96 million voters, although the latest data is subject to verification cleaning by INEC.

More than 70% of new entrants are young Nigerians between the ages of 18 and 35, according to the breakdown published by INEC. This is not a surprise, given that the exercise is primarily aimed at Nigerians who have reached the voting age of 18 since the last general election in 2019. This does not indicate new enthusiasm for the electoral process. among young people, although this enthusiasm may be real.

In fact, the number is below the target of 20 to 36 million new voters that INEC had set, based on Nigeria's population growth projections.

No change

The two most populous states in the country also registered new voters in the last window, Lagos with 585,629 registered and Kano with 569,103 while Ekiti with 124,844 new registered, Yobe with 152,414 and the Territory of the Federal Capital (FCT) with 211,341 have the least numbers.

But the distribution of new voters did not affect Nigeria's electoral map significantly. Despite the massive mobilization for registration, particularly on social networks, states and geopolitical areas have generally maintained their ranks in the electoral roll.

The North West with its seven states will still have by far the largest number of registered voters with 22.67 million registered voters, followed by the South West with 18.3 million and the South South with 15 ,2 millions. The centre-north will have 14.1 million registered voters; the Northeast 12.8 million; and the Southeast 11.49 million.

How do the numbers affect Tinubu, Atiku and Obi?
Infographic showing the number of voters completed by INEC. [CREDIT: INEC]Infographic showing the number of voters completed by INEC. [CREDIT: INEC]
So how do the numbers affect the permutations for the 2023 race?

Based on our record at this point in the 2023 race, candidates from both parties remain the favor...

State of the PT race: What Nigerian voter registration numbers mean for Tinubu, Atiku, Obi

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) suspended the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise last week after more than 12 million new voters registered since the window opened on June 28 2020. This figure took the voter register for next year's general election to 96 million voters, although the latest data is subject to verification cleaning by INEC.

More than 70% of new entrants are young Nigerians between the ages of 18 and 35, according to the breakdown published by INEC. This is not a surprise, given that the exercise is primarily aimed at Nigerians who have reached the voting age of 18 since the last general election in 2019. This does not indicate new enthusiasm for the electoral process. among young people, although this enthusiasm may be real.

In fact, the number is below the target of 20 to 36 million new voters that INEC had set, based on Nigeria's population growth projections.

No change

The two most populous states in the country also registered new voters in the last window, Lagos with 585,629 registered and Kano with 569,103 while Ekiti with 124,844 new registered, Yobe with 152,414 and the Territory of the Federal Capital (FCT) with 211,341 have the least numbers.

But the distribution of new voters did not affect Nigeria's electoral map significantly. Despite the massive mobilization for registration, particularly on social networks, states and geopolitical areas have generally maintained their ranks in the electoral roll.

The North West with its seven states will still have by far the largest number of registered voters with 22.67 million registered voters, followed by the South West with 18.3 million and the South South with 15 ,2 millions. The centre-north will have 14.1 million registered voters; the Northeast 12.8 million; and the Southeast 11.49 million.

How do the numbers affect Tinubu, Atiku and Obi?
Infographic showing the number of voters completed by INEC. [CREDIT: INEC]Infographic showing the number of voters completed by INEC. [CREDIT: INEC]
So how do the numbers affect the permutations for the 2023 race?

Based on our record at this point in the 2023 race, candidates from both parties remain the favor...

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