Oscar Predictions: Adapted Screenplay - Could 'Glass Onion' be the first sequel winner since 'The Lord of the Rings?' »

Variety The Awards Circuit section is the home for all the news on the awards and related content throughout the year, with the following: official predictions for upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety, Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis's assessment of the current race standings and do not reflect personal preferences for any movie or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec 22, 2022< /em>

Oscars 2023 Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)

CATEGORY COMMENT: "Glass Onion" debuted at no. 1 on Netflix's top 10 charts, solidifying its popularity and success in the Oscar buzz department (even if Ben Shapiro has his own weird thoughts on the subject). Rian Johnson, a former "Knives Out" (2019) nominee in the original screenplay, will likely benefit from a seemingly thinner-than-usual adapted screenplay field, which only materialized with two more "slam" entries. dunk" - "Women Talking" by Sarah Polley and "Living" by Kazuo Ishiguro.

Sequels aren't always obvious at the Academy, but the writers branch tends to do so be more open. If Benoit Blanc's (Daniel Craig) latest tale were nominated, it would be among "Borat Later Moviefilm" (2020), "Logan" (2017) and "Before Midnight" (2013) as the latest nominees in the category. If it won, it would be the first since 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' (2003) and 'The Godfather Part II' (1974), both of which won Best Picture. But I don't think anyone expects "Glass Onion" to be "the only one" in this field of contenders.

"All Quiet on the Western Front" has an easy opportunity to recognize director Edward Berger, the one of the screenwriters, if they can't find a place for him in the directing category.

It's still relatively unclear what to make of David Magee's "A Man Called Otto," " Rebecca Lenkiewicz's She Said" and Samuel D. Hunter's "The Whale" in this race, all of which have pros and cons, as far as their potential nominations go.

But there is room for a few surprises. 'Top Gun: Maverick' could prove its popularity with the Academy by earning a mention here, although many don't think a story written by five people is one of its strengths.

We'll see if other great franchise movies like "Avatar: The Way of the Water" or "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" has the gas to bring them into the fold, but they seem to be a long way off (for now).

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