The debt ceiling and the false equivalence

The outcome of the debt ceiling dispute is truly uncertain.
The most difficult political stories for journalists and experts to analyze may be those that are neither 100% stories nor 50% stories.
A 100% story is one in which the reality is clear (even if supporters sometimes deny it): Joe Biden won the 2020 election. The planet is heating up. Crime and inflation are higher today than they were a few years ago.
A 50% story is a story in which both sides are left alone. Expressing is the only fair way to cover it because the issue involves inescapable trade-offs for society (even though proponents sometimes suggest otherwise). Tax rates, abortion, border security, and religion in schools are all eligible. These disputes are more about values and priorities than underlying reality.
Some stories, however, don't fit into either category. These stories tend to involve disputed facts, and each side can point to evidence for their argument - but not equal amounts of evidence. In this third category, one party makes assertions that are much more grounded in truth although neither party has a monopoly on them. I consider these stories 90% stories.
The fight for the debt ceiling is 90% stories.
One branch, big demands
Almost no other country in the world has a debt ceiling. Elsewhere, politicians argue over the level of taxes and spending when passing budget laws. Once these laws are passed, the government no longer needs additional permission to borrow money to fund its programs.
Your household budget works the same way: you don't first decide if you want to buy a car, then decide separately if you should pay off the car loan. The decision is whether or not to buy the car in the first place. If you do, you pay off the loan or go bankrupt.
The US government uses a two-step process instead. After passing tax and spending policies, Congress must pass another law that authorizes repayment of its obligations. This second law increases the limit on the amount the government can borrow, known as the debt ceiling. (Here's an explanation.) Denmark is the only other country with a similar system, and Danish politicians raise their debt ceiling well in advance, usually without hard feelings.
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the federal government would likely hit its debt ceiling in about a month, around June 1. If that happens before Congress raises the cap, the federal government could default. A default could trigger global financial chaos because investors have traditionally viewed US debt as a safe investment in a risky world.
The debt ceiling n It's not a 100% story because both sides have used his existence as a threat, meant to extract political concessions, when the other side controls the White House. As a senator, Biden voted against raising the ceiling several times, and Senator Barack Obama voted against it in 2006.
But the debt ceiling is not a 50% story, because the two parties behaved very differently. The Democrats never let the cap come close to a breach; when a Republican is president, Democrats have agreed to raise the limit well in advance. This happened without too much drama in 2019 when Donald Trump was President and Democrats controlled the House.
"I can't imagine that anyone is even considering using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge,” Trump said. Republicans were so close to allowing a default that financial markets tightened and the economy and labor market suffered.Today, Republicans are calling for a dramatic change in policies...

World May 3, 2023 0 68 Add to Reading List

The debt ceiling and the false equivalence

The outcome of the debt ceiling dispute is truly uncertain.

The most difficult political stories for journalists and experts to analyze may be those that are neither 100% stories nor 50% stories.

A 100% story is one in which the reality is clear (even if supporters sometimes deny it): Joe Biden won the 2020 election. The planet is heating up. Crime and inflation are higher today than they were a few years ago.

A 50% story is a story in which both sides are left alone. Expressing is the only fair way to cover it because the issue involves inescapable trade-offs for society (even though proponents sometimes suggest otherwise). Tax rates, abortion, border security, and religion in schools are all eligible. These disputes are more about values and priorities than underlying reality.

Some stories, however, don't fit into either category. These stories tend to involve disputed facts, and each side can point to evidence for their argument - but not equal amounts of evidence. In this third category, one party makes assertions that are much more grounded in truth although neither party has a monopoly on them. I consider these stories 90% stories.

The fight for the debt ceiling is 90% stories.

One branch, big demands

Almost no other country in the world has a debt ceiling. Elsewhere, politicians argue over the level of taxes and spending when passing budget laws. Once these laws are passed, the government no longer needs additional permission to borrow money to fund its programs.

Your household budget works the same way: you don't first decide if you want to buy a car, then decide separately if you should pay off the car loan. The decision is whether or not to buy the car in the first place. If you do, you pay off the loan or go bankrupt.

The US government uses a two-step process instead. After passing tax and spending policies, Congress must pass another law that authorizes repayment of its obligations. This second law increases the limit on the amount the government can borrow, known as the debt ceiling. (Here's an explanation.) Denmark is the only other country with a similar system, and Danish politicians raise their debt ceiling well in advance, usually without hard feelings.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the federal government would likely hit its debt ceiling in about a month, around June 1. If that happens before Congress raises the cap, the federal government could default. A default could trigger global financial chaos because investors have traditionally viewed US debt as a safe investment in a risky world.

The debt ceiling n It's not a 100% story because both sides have used his existence as a threat, meant to extract political concessions, when the other side controls the White House. As a senator, Biden voted against raising the ceiling several times, and Senator Barack Obama voted against it in 2006.

But the debt ceiling is not a 50% story, because the two parties behaved very differently. The Democrats never let the cap come close to a breach; when a Republican is president, Democrats have agreed to raise the limit well in advance. This happened without too much drama in 2019 when Donald Trump was President and Democrats controlled the House.

"I can't imagine that anyone is even considering using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge,” Trump said. Republicans were so close to allowing a default that financial markets tightened and the economy and labor market suffered.Today, Republicans are calling for a dramatic change in policies...