"Top Gun: Maverick" projected as the No. 1 domestic release in 2022, "Avatar: The Way of the Water" worldwide

With caveats of course, but after five days of release (and seven in some countries), the trajectory for Disney's James Cameron's 'Avatar: The Way of the Water' is clearer. Above all, we now know enough to guess its ranking among the domestic releases of 2022.

Unless a bigger-than-expected raise occurs, "Top Gun: Maverick" (Paramount) will claim the 2022 national crown with $719 million raised so far. But the Tom Cruise star, who has a worldwide total of $1.489 billion, is set to be surpassed by 'The Way of Water' when all earnings are in play. foreign takes for "Maverick," at this point the best in this category.

As of Tuesday, “The Way of Water” has grossed $168.6 million domestically and $555.9 million worldwide. There are small positive signs that his trajectory will improve from recent pre-Christmas weekend releases, from "The Force Awakens" (2015) to "Spider-Man: No Way Home" (2021). In particular, its 13% improvement Tuesday over Monday is the best indication yet of better performance ahead.

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Opening weekends are usually enough to reasonably guess the ultimate domestic gross. (Overseas is not as straightforward due to staggered openings and greater differences between countries). "The Way of the Water" is a little different. Questions about the strength of word of mouth remain open, as well as whether its duration and possibly increased family interest might shift attendance further to December 25 and beyond, and how many repeat views might add to a higher increase than usual.

Based on the generally reliable precedents of best movies with Christmas yet to come, Cameron's sequel would have appeared to be heading for $470 million domestic and $1.4 billion worldwide. The improvement since has been small, but as seasoned observers know, small increases in the early key days are significant. In addition, a record number of new releases will be released.

But what improves the outlook are several elements. First, the fan base for it doesn't have the same intensity of ardor that makes seeing it first a priority. Then the 192-minute running time (plus pre-show) makes it a bigger-than-usual commitment that's easier on the holidays. This commitment and the higher prices for priority premium shows may have led to a sense of expectation among some viewers. Also, especially for overseas viewers, the opening weekend World Cup Finals served as a competition. The repeat viewing remains to be determined.

The projection of the Christmas-New Year period begins with the past precedents. Grosses will not match the first weekend; next weekend, with Christmas Eve Saturday, could see a 50% drop. But the remaining days of the week will bounce back, so the full week might only drop by a third.

Where does this lead? Industry sources vary in their projections, but the worst-case scenario is a national total of $475 million. Most estimates are at least $500-525 million, with a chance of reaching $600 million. For comparison, "No Way Home" sold for $814 million.

Foreign estimates tend to be less clear as different markets may react differently. China, in particular, where it has brought in $66.5 million so far (affected by ongoing COVID-19 issues) is where the potential for improvement is greatest. Expect it to top $1.5 billion and "Maverick," with the estimate ranging from $1.6 billion to $2 billion. ("No Way Home" was just over $1.9 billion).

In the industry, no one has been found who expects the national catch to top "Maverick". Comparisons to the massive 22-weekend multiple for "Titanic" and 10 times for "Avatar" loom large among fans hoping for much more.