A general view of Navigator Terminals, an oil storage depot along the River Thames, on March 10, 2026 in London, England.
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The fluctuating price of dated Brentthe global benchmark for actual barrels of crude, has prompted energy analysts to warn that acute tensions in the physical oil market show no signs of abating amid concerns over a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.
As energy market participants continue to monitor shipping disruptions throughout the Strait of Hormuz, strategically vitalan unprecedented gap appeared between the dated Brent and the Front month Brent futuressuggesting supplies will remain tight for some time.
The spot price of dated Brent, which refers to physical cargoes that have been assigned delivery dates 10 days to a month in advance, stood at $131.97 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, according to data compiled by Platts.
That’s up more than 7% from the previous session, but down from Tuesday’s record high of $144.42, just ahead of the U.S. and Iran. announcement a two-week truce.
Dated Brent is valued based on bids, offers and transactions in the open physical spot market, meaning it reflects the actual price of crude oil.
Meanwhile, Brent crude futures for June delivery last traded 0.6% higher at $96.51 a barrel on Friday morning.
“The price of Brent at $144 is not just a record price. It’s the physical market telling you that actual barrels are getting scarce. The market is pricing in scarcity, not just risk,” Andrejka Bernatova, founder and CEO of Dynamix Corporation III, told CNBC via email.
“Even with the ceasefire bringing the numbers down, the underlying stress hasn’t gone away and, frankly, I think the market is getting ahead of itself,” Bernatova said.
“The Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely blocked, and this ceasefire is fragile at best. Until these flows actually resume circulation, the $144 drawdown is less of a historical anomaly and more of an insight.”
About 20% of the world’s oil and gas crosses the Strait of Hormuza narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Shipping and shipping experts told CNBC that traffic on this critical energy artery won’t normalize anytime soon.
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“If refiners delay purchases in anticipation of further price declines while physical flows remain constrained, product strain could worsen even amid de-escalation,” said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy. said in a research note published Wednesday.
“The Brent fixed price has fallen, but physical differentials are likely to remain wide, tanker rates remain high and sour crude buyers continue to pay for the security of limited global supplies outside the Gulf,” he continued.
“This shows that perceived geopolitical risk can mitigate more quickly than operational risk,” Shah said.
Market dislocationMorgan Stanley strategists said the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz caused a much stronger shock to physical barrels linked to Brent compared to the main financial Brent futures contract.
“Dated Brent is the market’s assessment of the value of a physical barrel transported by sea in northwest Europe. ICE Brent, on the other hand, is a standardized, centrally cleared futures contract whose final cash settlement is linked to the Brent freight futures market via a defined expiration process,” Martijn Rats, commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note published Tuesday.
“These two prices are related, but they do not measure the same exposure over time or at the same point in the chain.”
The market dislocation shows that the Brent system identifies where the shock is most acute and immediate, Rats said.
Pavel Molchanov, senior analyst at Raymond James Investment, said this latest episode of supply disruption had caused traditional trading patterns between different crude grades to collapse.
“This speaks to unprecedented stress and uncertainty in the oil market,” Molchanov told CNBC via email.
Among some examples of this, Molchanov said Brent futures typically trade $3 to $5 per barrel higher than the US. West Texas Intermediate futures over the past decade, although WTI briefly rose above a premium of more than $10 during the Middle East crisis.
Prices of Russian Urals crude oil, meanwhile, have reached levels up to $30 above Brent in recent weeks, Molchanov said, noting that Urals has been trading at sharply discounted prices to Brent since Russia’s deal. large-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Molchanov also highlighted that Saudi Arabia had increased the premium for Arab Light crude over the Oman/Dubai benchmark to $19.50, adding that this premium had “never before” exceeded the $10 level.
