Hungarians vote in large numbers to end Orbán’s regime and elect the Magyars

37 minutes ago

Hungarians will go to the polls in large numbers, in a vote that could bring down Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years and have significant repercussions for the rest of Europe, the United States and Russia.

Most polls favor Péter Magyar, who formed a popular party, Tisza, after splitting from the ruling Fidesz party. After voting in Budapest, he said that if he won, he would strengthen Hungary’s position in the EU and NATO and take action against corruption.

Orbán told reporters after voting “I’m here to win” and, when asked if he had underestimated his rival, replied “I don’t underestimate anyone”.

Voting takes place until 7:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. GMT) and the results will begin to be known in the evening.

After three hours, a record 16.89 percent of the electorate had voted, a dramatic six-point increase from four years ago and an indication that voters are far more engaged this time around.

Orbán had ratcheted up tensions ahead of the vote, saying the opposition would “stop at nothing to take power”, and Magyar responded by calling on voters not to give in to the “pressure and blackmail of Fidesz”.

After 16 years of Orbán ruling Hungary with what the European Parliament called a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”, Magyar and his Tisza party are promising “regime change”, a reset of relations with the European Union and an end to close relations with Russia.

He attracted far more people to his last rally in Debrecen, the second city, than to Orbán in Budapest.

But Orbán remains highly regarded by US President Donald Trump, who called on Hungarians to “go out and vote” for his “true friend, fighter and WINNER”.

Speaking to supporters on Saturday evening, the Fidesz leader insisted victory was still within reach and stuck to his main campaign themes targeting Brussels and Ukraine. “We don’t give our children, we don’t give our guns and we don’t give our money,” he said.

His message resonated with the crowd, who chanted “we won’t let this happen.”

One of his supporters, Johanna, said she supported his family protection policy and in particular the war in Ukraine.

He has emerged victorious four times in a row, but a fifth straight victory might be out of his reach.

The economy is struggling and he has been rocked by a series of scandals, including revelations that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó regularly speaks with his Russian counterpart before and after European Union summits, which he has admitted.

Hungary is not only a member of the EU, it is also part of NATO, but Orbán vetoed €90 billion (£78 billion) in aid to Ukraine, angering his European partners.

The three most reliable Hungarian polls all indicate a “huge lead” for the Hungarian Tisza party, says elections specialist Róbert László of the Budapest think tank Political Capital. Most analysts thought Fidesz would narrow its lead as the elections got closer, but he says that has not happened.

Magyar told voters that they needed not just an absolute majority of 100 seats in the 199-seat Parliament, but a supermajority of two-thirds, to roll back many of the constitutional changes made by Fidesz on the independence of the judiciary, media ownership and many other areas of life. Hungary consistently ranks low on Transparency International’s EU Corruption Perceptions Index.

“The most likely scenario is that Tisza gets a comfortable absolute majority, but not a two-thirds majority. But we cannot rule out a two-thirds majority either,” says László.

In recent days, figures from the police, military and business have spoken out against Fidesz, and László believes this is a sign that public opinion has turned against Orbán.

Hungary has a complicated electoral system:

• Of the 199 seats available, 106 are directly elected in the constituencies
• The remaining 93 are registered on party lists for which Hungarians abroad and at home are allowed to vote.
• In constituency elections, losing parties see their votes transferred to the national list.
• The winning parties also have their excess votes transferred, which has often benefited Fidesz.
• Parties need 5% of the national vote to enter Parliament

Viktor Orbán admitted that the electoral system benefited his party.

One of the few polls that suggest he can still win is the Nézőpont Institute, whose president, Ágoston Mráz, cites 22 “battleground seats” out of a total of 106 constituencies. If Fidesz wins these seats, it sees a potential victory. However, as 5% of the votes in these seats will not be counted immediately, it may take several days before the final result is known.

He also says Fidesz voters may not be as vocal as their Tisza counterparts.

“Conservative voters are generally not as enthusiastic or their self-confidence is probably limited. They are more hidden voters, they are not ready to answer pollsters’ questions, and among Fidesz voters there are more, percentage-wise, blue-collar voters than in the Tisza party electoral camp.”

If Magyar is to win, Tisza will need to defeat Fidesz in some important cities, including Hungary’s sixth-largest city, Györ, near the Slovak border in the northwest.

Orbán himself put Györ on the campaign map last month when he visibly lost his cool in the face of jeers from protesters and accused them of “promoting Ukrainian interests”.

Conversely, the Magyars organized a very large gathering last Thursday in a central square in Györ.

Gergely Németh, a 20-year-old student who said he was visiting the square with his mother, explained that as a family they had struggled financially because of government policy.

Although mothers of two or more children are increasingly exempt from income tax thanks to Orbán’s pro-family policies, not everyone has benefited.

Like many new voters who spoke to the BBC, Németh said his main priority was to defeat Fidesz: “I don’t think it’s the man, Péter Magyar, who is the most important. The most important thing is that someone changes these politicians in Parliament.”

For two years, Györ has had an independent mayor and deputy mayor, but Fidesz still holds the majority in the local council.

“I know what Fidesz brings, I know what Fidesz does, I live there,” says deputy mayor Roland Kósa, who speaks of arrogance towards those in power. “When we were elected, what we faced before and after was that Fidesz looked at us and said and thought that we don’t exist: it’s still their city, it’s still their country.”

Kósa believes that the right way to tackle Fidesz is to move away from partisan politics.

Although Magyar built his political career as a center-right conservative under Orbán, he radically turned against his party two years ago and now attracts voters from across the political spectrum.

This allowed voters who may not have liked him as a person to hold their noses knowing they were voting for a broad-based movement.

Magyar made a conscious decision not to ally with other parties, choosing to create his Tisza party from scratch, creating “Tisza islands” – often small groups of activists in a sea of ​​Fidesz strongholds. This was not particularly original, as Orbán had done something similar by forming “citizen circles” during his years in opposition, several years before.

But these islands formed the roots of a national movement and the backbone of his electoral campaign.

Its candidates are not politicians either: they feature surgical specialists, teachers and business figures who know their local communities and the problems of health care and education in Hungary.

This is not a normal climax for a European election. The two leaders are not participating in a televised electoral debate, but on the contrary on social networks and in public places.

On the surface, Fidesz officials say they are confident of victory, although political leader Balázs Orbán has suggested that if that happens, the opposition will not accept defeat.

Ágoston Mráz also worries that voters in Tisza will not accept an Orbán victory and will claim that there was electoral fraud: “I’m really afraid to see violence in the streets because there is tension in the air. I really hope that every politician will be smart enough to help voters avoid violence in the streets.”

There were no signs of violence when at least 100,000 Hungarians attended an anti-Fidesz concert on Heroes’ Square on Friday evening, and Magyars warned the population “not to be taken in by any kind of provocation.”