A Nobel Prize-winning economist has warned that persistent predictions that artificial intelligence will destroy the job market could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Robert Shiller, who shared the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on asset prices, wrote a guest essay Monday in The New York Times which argued that the panic around AI was not a new sociological phenomenon.
In fact, he writes, humans have feared that new technologies could replace them since the days of Aristotle, who imagined a self-powered loom and a lyre that could play music without someone plucking the strings.
And in the 19th century, a group of English textile workers – later known as Luddites – intentionally destroyed machines that they thought might put them out of work.
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Professor Robert J. Shiller wins the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences at an awards ceremony December 10, 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. (Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)
Shiller fears that similar anxieties, inherent in us, will resurface again.
He cited a Quinnipiac survey in March, which found that 70% of people believe AI will reduce the number of jobs. Additionally, only 16% of Americans believe AI will have a positive impact on society over the next two decades, according to one study. Pew Research survey carried out in June.
“Like many others, I believe that AI could reduce employment. But unlike most, I don’t necessarily blame the technology itself. Instead, I worry about the power of the fear it generates,” Shiller wrote.
“Our brains are wired to respond to stories. The narratives that circulate in a population can affect individuals’ economic decisions,” he continued. “When millions of people make millions and millions of decisions based on negative expectations, there is a risk that fear can actually help bring about reality.”
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Robert Shiller attends the 2019 Forbes 30 Under 30 Summit at the Detroit Masonic Temple on October 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Taylor Hill/Getty Images)
Much of the negative media coverage around AI is based on speculation about its impact on jobs and the economy.
In late May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said Axios that within one to five years, AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment up to 20%. He then expressed uncertainty about the exact timeline.
The current unemployment rate is 4.3%, up from 4% at the start of President Donald Trump’s term in January 2025.
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“While the job market has slowed for a multitude of reasons, some reports indicate that fear of an AI apocalypse is worsening the freeze and contributing to a record level of consumer confidence,” Shiller argued.
A CloudHQ data center in Ashburn, Virginia on May 31, 2026. (Lexi Critchett/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Shiller suggested that technology leaders like Amodei, who promote pessimistic scenarios that their own companies could help achieve, are showing a certain myopia and should be reined in to avoid an economic recession.
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“Perhaps the best we can do is directly appeal to the Silicon Valley executives who have promoted these negative narratives so vigorously,” Shiller wrote.
He continued: “The resulting media attention highlighting how dangerously powerful your AI model is can certainly help you sell more products, but it can be much more difficult to do so during a recession. Try not to forget the crucial lessons taught by our past.
