Avatar: The Waterway Opening Post: Why Projections Can Be Too Low

[Editor's Note: Grosses for 2019 and earlier films are adjusted to approximate 2022 ticket prices, using 2019 ticket prices plus an estimated 20% increase to this day.]

It all starts for real with previews starting today at 2:00 p.m. PT in the US/Canada. In 14 countries they are already on day two; by the weekend, most other countries — including critical China — will screen "Avatar: The Way of Water" (Disney). It's the most anticipated movie of 2022 (and, at one point or another, more recent years); more importantly, it's about to make everyone forget about the theatrical slump or die trying.

Projections don't guarantee the biggest opening of the year, but it should be within range. Its competitors are "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" ($187.4 million) and "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" ($181.3 million). A year ago this weekend, "Spider-Man: No Way Home" opened at $260.1 million, second only to 2019's "Avengers: Endgame" ($420 million adjusted).

A weekend before Christmas as a launch pad for success is not James Cameron's invention, but he is a pioneer in the field. Before “Titanic,” the holidays seemed hostile to traditional tent poles. Too many movies. There could be a blizzard. Much safer, logic went, throw in the summer, or maybe Thanksgiving.

It's true: Christmas is the hardest time to release a great movie. It is a small opening with a finite number of rooms and seats. Until recently, at least six studios were releasing films during this period, along with top stocks and more limited specialty expansions.

"Titanic"

©20thCentFox/Courtesy Everett Collection

Cameron's previous two titles in December, 'Titanic' and 'Avatar', made the case for avoiding Christmas for other blockbusters. But in 2015, "The Force Awakens" changed Christmas release plans forever. Disney correctly felt it had the wherewithal to demand multiple screens over the holidays, and it opened to $324 million, second only to "Avengers: Endgame" without Christmas.

Here's how Christmas changed: in 1997, "Titanic" opened to $69 million, accounting for 30% of the weekend total and narrowly beating same-day release "Tomorrow Never Dies" . In 2009, "Avatar" opened to $113 million, or 56% of the weekend.

"The Way of Water" should easily make up at least 85% of this weekend's total. Last year's "Spider-Man" accounted for 91%.

Since "Force Awakens," Christmas has hosted other "Star Wars," "Aquaman," and "Spider-Man" movies. This year, there are only three other new studio-wide releases through December 25 - “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (Universal), “Babylon” (Paramount) and “Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody" (Sony), with "Puss" which should do the best.

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