Brexit's flagship Pacific trade deal has 'no major economic gains for the UK'

Brexit's flagship new trade deal with Pacific nations 'will not lead to substantial economic gains for the UK', top trade experts say.

Last week, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch signed Britain into the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) and claimed it would give the economy a 'big boost' only possible by outside the EU.

She claimed official estimates from her own department of a tiny 0. A gain of 08% of GDP over 10 years was too small and did not take into account the potential hidden benefits of membership.

But academics from Britain's highly respected Trade Policy Observatory who have reviewed the deal say the terms of such a hidden increase appear to be "highly unlikely".

Sussex University academics also note that the The deal's small benefit of 0.08% seems "a little short of the expected 4% GDP loss compensation from leaving the EU".

CPT The PP is a free trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam and was established in 2018 to reduce trade barriers between the countries involved.

But the benefits of the deal for Britain are small, the researchers say, because the UK already has bilateral free trade agreements with all but two of its members: Brunei and Malaysia.

The government hopes that the trade area will further expand to cover more countries, such as China. China's entry into the bloc could be a game-changer, the researchers say, but it's also highly unlikely to do so.

China applied to join the CPTPP in 2021, but since then "intensified Sino-US hegemonic rivalry, China's expansionism in the South China Sea, and the China-Taiwan conflict" - as well as differences in standards - mean that China is "unlikely to join e the CPTPP for the foreseeable future," the researchers conclude.

Its application for membership has also complicated matters, however, casting a geopolitical cloud over the procedures that could potentially disrupt the membership of other countries in the CPTPP, such as Taiwan.

"Joining the CPTPP will not result in substantial economic gains for the UK", write authors Dr Minako Morita-Jaeger, Dr Manuel Tong Koecklin , Nicolò Tamberi and Guillermo Larbalestier.

"Such gains...