A miscalculation led to an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran

Israeli officials say they do not consider a strike against a high-level Iranian target in Syria a provocation and have not warned Washington to this topic until just before it happened.

Follow live updates on military strikes Israel was moments from an April 1 airstrike that killed several senior Iranian commanders at the Iranian embassy complex in Syria when he informed the United States of what was going to happen.

Israel's closest ally had just been caught off guard.

Aids quickly alerted Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security adviser; Jon Finer, Deputy National Security Advisor; Brett McGurk, Mr. Biden's Middle East coordinator; and others, who saw that the strike could have serious consequences, a U.S. official said. Publicly, U.S. officials have expressed support for Israel, but privately they have expressed anger that it is taking such aggressive action against Iran without consulting Washington.

The Israelis had seriously miscalculated, believing that Iran would not react strongly, according to several U.S. officials involved in high-level discussions after the attack, a view shared by a senior Israeli official. On Saturday, Iran launched a retaliatory barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles on Israel, a response of unexpected scale, although it caused minimal damage.

Events have provoked It is clear that the unwritten rules of engagement in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran have changed dramatically in recent months, making it more difficult than ever for each side to assess the intentions and reactions of the other.

Since the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, an Iranian ally, and the subsequent bombardment of the Gaza Strip by Israel, there has been escalation after escalation and miscalculation after miscalculation, raising fears of a cycle of retaliation that could potentially become an all-out war.

Even after After it became clear that Iran would retaliate, U.S. and Israeli officials initially thought the scale of the response would be quite limited, before rushing to revise their assessment again and again. The focus now is on what Israel will do next – and how Iran might respond.

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