NASA cancels Artemis I launch attempt but delays decision to roll back

Enlarge / NASA's Space Launch System rocket might return to the Vehicle Assembly Building Sunday night, or maybe not. Trevor Mahlman

NASA announced on Saturday that it will no longer attempt to launch its Artemis I mission on Tuesday, September 27, as Tropical Storm Ian continues to develop in the Caribbean Sea.

Instead of preparing the massive Space Launch System rocket for liftoff in three days, teams at Kennedy Space Center in Florida will instead begin configuring ground systems and the vehicle for a potential return to a large hangar , the Vehicle Assembly Building. Sheltering inside this building would protect the $4 billion rocket and the Orion spacecraft from any bad weather from Ian.

Earlier, NASA announced that it would make a decision by Saturday afternoon on whether to bring the Artemis I mission back inside the hangar. However, in its Saturday announcement, the agency said it would now make that decision on Sunday.

"Engineers have deferred a final deployment decision to Sunday, September 25, to allow for additional data collection and analysis," the space agency said in a blog post. "If the managers of Artemis I decide to go back, it will start late Sunday evening or early Monday morning."

According to an agency spokesperson, NASA will not set a new launch date until the Artemis I roll back decision is made. Theoretically, September 28 is in play, but at the moment the forecast looks pretty bad and it may not be possible to reconfigure the rocket for launch by then anyway. That would leave October 1 and 2 as the most likely options. The current launch period ends on October 5. After that date, NASA will have to return to the Vehicle Assembly Building no matter what, which will delay the much-anticipated launch of Artemis I to the second half of November at the earliest.

A prudent decision

NASA is buying time with this decision. Now preparing for a rollback, NASA should be able to complete this operation by Monday evening, cautiously allowing enough time to get the SLS rocket to safe space and sending its employees home before Ian does not directly affect Florida.

For the next 24 hours, agency decision makers can follow forecasts from the National Hurricane Center as well as US Space Force Florida launch pad weather officers on Ian's outlook.< /p>

Much of the guidance from the forecast model has shifted westward in recent runs, and if that trend were to continue, it's plausible that NASA could experience reasonably mild weather at Kennedy Space Center to keep his rocket at the launch site, exposed to the elements. However, that is far from guaranteed as predictions for where Ian will be by the middle of next week remain highly uncertain.

Five-day forecast for Tropical Storm Ian from from 11 a.m. ET (3:00 p.m. UTC) on Saturday. National Hurricane Center

According to the latest forecast from the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, Ian is expected to hit the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane on Wednesday or Thursday. NASA facilities at Kennedy Space Center remain within the "cone of uncertainty" released by the hurricane center. However, this cone is far from foolproof - the center moves out of the cone in about one in three forecasts, and hurricane impacts typically extend well beyond the center of the storm. Additionally, on the hurricane's current center track, NASA facilities would be on the "dirty" side of the storm, where the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are likely to occur. p>

The good news is that NOAA planes will be collecting data from the interior and environment surrounding Ian today to inform nighttime forecast model runs. Also, if the center of the storm becomes better defined, it will boost confidence in the forecast by Sunday morning.