The economic fallout from extreme heat will increase over time

The economic impact of the relentless heat wave hitting southern Europe, the United States and much of the northern hemisphere is likely to be short-lived. duration in most places, with the temporary closure of tourist sites, the abandonment of outdoor dining and an increase in electricity consumption linked to air conditioning.

But in the longer term, the economic fallout caused by climate change is likely to be profound.

Devastating fires, floods and droughts tend to make headlines. Other insidious effects can generate less attention, but still wreak havoc. Researchers have found that extreme temperatures reduce labor productivity, damage crops, increase mortality rates, disrupt global trade and dampen investment.

An analysis by researchers associated with the Center for Economic Policy Research has found that in Europe, France, Italy, Spain, Romania and Germany have been most affected by climate-related disasters over the past 20 last years. However, Central and Eastern European countries are increasingly affected by climatic unrest.

These developments put additional pressure on public spending, as governments are called upon to replace damaged infrastructure and provide grants and relief. The analysis notes that tax revenues could also decline when climate change disrupts economic activity.

Economic losses from climate change are expected to increase significantly in the future , according to estimates by the European Union, although it noted that there is no mechanism in most member states to collect and assess economic costs.

Barclays analysts have estimated that the cost of each climate-related disaster has increased by almost 77% over the past half-century.

Globally, the losses will widen. A study published last year that sought to measure the impact of man-made heat waves on global economic growth concluded that the cumulative loss between 1992 and 2013 was between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion in the global economy. world.

"We think of extreme heat as a kind of localized phenomenon," said Justin Mankin, a climatologist at Dartmouth College and co-author of the study. "What's really crazy about the heat waves we're going through right now is not just their magnitude, but the number of people they're affecting simultaneously."

Mr. Mankin said that in the United States alone, 32 million people work outdoors. The proportion of outside workers is much higher in developing countries, he noted. Extreme heat also stresses power plants, causing blackouts, and sometimes even warping roads.

"We've built an economy and a set of practices coded to a past climate," he says, "not one that is unfolding."