Ukraine war plan leak triggers Pentagon investigation

Classified documents detailing secret US and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram.

WASHINGTON — Classified wartime documents detailing secret U.S. and NATO plans to bolster Ukraine's military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were released this week on social media, senior U.S. officials said. Biden administration.

The Pentagon is investigating who may have leaked the documents, which have appeared on Twitter and Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users widely available in Russia.

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been altered in parts of their format from origin, overstating U.S. estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed. the analysts. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of tables of planned arms deliveries, troop and battalion strengths and other plans, represent a major breach by US intelligence in its efforts to help Ukraine.

Biden officials were working to have them removed but were unsuccessful as of Thursday night.

"We are aware of reports from the media messages and the department is reviewing the matter," said Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary.

The documents do not provide specific battle plans, such as how, when and where Ukraine intends to launch its offensive, which US officials say will likely arrive within the next month. of five weeks, they offer a snapshot of the weather - the U.S. and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign.

For To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general, or intelligence analyst, however, the documents undoubtedly offer many tantalizing clues and insights. The documents mention, for example, the rate of expenditure on HIMARS – high-mobility artillery rocket systems supplied by the United States, which can launch attacks from a distance against targets such as munitions dumps, infrastructure and concentrations of troops. The Pentagon has not said publicly how quickly Ukrainian troops use HIMARS munitions; the documents do.

Analysts said Friday that it may be difficult to assess the impact of the document release on frontline fighting now and In the coming months. The recent Russian offensive has struggled to make any gains in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts wonder whether the Russian military, after suffering massive losses, is capable of mounting another or withstand a Ukrainian attack.

It was unclear how the documents ended up on social media. But pro-Russian government channels shared and aired the briefing slides, military analysts said.

Analysts warned that the documents released by Russian sources could be selectively edited to present Kremlin disinformation.

"Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should be careful about anything published by Russian sources," said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the NAC. , a research institute in Arlington, Virginia.

For example, one of the slides indicates that 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers were killed while the Ukraine suffered up to 71,500 troop deaths. The Pentagon and other analysts have estimated that Russia suffered far greater casualties, with nearly 200,000 killed and wounded, while Ukraine suffered over 100,000 killed and wounded.

Nevertheless, analysts said parts of the documents appear authentic and will provide valuable information to Russia such as weapons and troop delivery schedules, Ukrainian troop build-up figures.. .