Insecurity, monetary policy, others can defeat the 2023 elections – CDD

In a new report released in Abuja, the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD) said growing insecurity, misinformation, monetary policy, religion and ethical misappropriation could thwart the election outcome of 2023.

The report titled "The Presidential Elections in Nigeria: A SWOT Analysis" raised concerns about the safety of election staff, voters and materials, as well as the obstacles that politics would face as cases of kidnapping, violence, banditry, insurgency and communal clashes persist.

Noting that the 2023 general election is a major logistical operation, the CDD said there were concerns about reaching 176,846 polling stations, which would require close recruitment and training 1.5 million electoral and security agents. It is about four times the size of the Nigerian army.

Religion, ethnicity and monetary policy would determine, according to the non-profit organization, the emergence of the four main candidates, Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), Bola Tinubu of the Progressive Congress (APC) , Peter of the Obi Labor Party and Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

The report, signed by CDD director Idayat Hassan, places great importance on the credibility of the upcoming elections in the context of the recently passed electoral law, adding that the law offers prospects that could redefine elections in the Nigeria.

With campaigns planned for the coming week, the CDD said insecurity would be a factor in the political calculations of leading candidates as they cross the country, noting that in the northwest, development would have a impact on the performance of the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mr. Tinubu. Meanwhile, secessionist unrest in the southeast could reduce turnout, which may favor neither Labor Party flag bearer Peter Obi nor People's Democratic Party candidate Abubakar Atiku.

"Religion is likely to figure prominently in the debates following the APC's decision to organize a Muslim-Muslim ticket. The renewed engagement of young people in politics, a feature of the period of voter registration, could also be transformative and favor Obi.

“Money will continue to play a huge role in determining who emerges victorious if the presidential primaries and recent gubernatorial elections offer any lesson. Finally, online campaigns will be more fiercely opposed than ever, with attacks aimed at boosting candidates, attacking opponents and undermining the INEC likely to be accentuated in social media in the run-up to, during and even after the vote,” the report notes in part.

The CDD added that citizen access to electoral infrastructure would remain consistent throughout the campaign and during the voting period, particularly for those internally displaced by the conflict.

Recalling that INEC Chairman Mahmud Yakubu is the first head of INEC to be appointed for a second term in the country's history; the new report accentuated the impact of the replacement of 19 resident election commissioners on the Commission, noting that the difficult lack of people of integrity in office will impact the election. However, the CDD pointed out that the 2022 electoral law may have introduced several changes that would continue to improve the credibility of the elections.

The report also noted that instances of inconclusive elections would be significantly reduced in 2023 as the new electoral law now defines overvoting in terms of accredited voters versus registered voters, adding that the INEC could also , according to the new law , examine the results signed under financial incentive or duress.

If INEC wisely applied the technology, which it had encouraged and granted through the new electoral law, the report noted that the transparency of the election could be improved, adding that the credibility of the ballot would also depend the extent to which citizens could vote freely and without hindrance.

"Insecurity remains a critical issue, particularly in the northwest and southeast. The prevailing structural, infrastructural and cultural ecosystems in which the polls will take place pose an additional challenge to this operation.

"Rapidly releasing the full INEC budget could help mitigate some of them. Finally, the role played by security agencies, and subsequently the judiciary, may also crucial in determining the credibility of the election than that of the electoral management body.

"Nigeria is currently facing an epidemic of insecurity...